Are 23% market share possible for Chinese manufacturers?

At the Reuters Events: Automotive Europe conference, Alfredo Altavilla made a strong case for BYD’s European ambitions.

Let me paint the full picture of what this could mean if we take the ambition seriously.

This is not a forecast. It is a scenario exercise.

Assume the European car market is around 13.5 million vehicles in 2030.

Assume BEVs are around 50% of new-car sales. That would mean a BEV market of about 6.75 million vehicles.

Now assume BYD reaches 25% of the European BEV market.

That would be about 1.7 million BYD BEVs in Europe.

If BEVs represent 80% of BYD’s European sales mix, total BYD volume would be around 2.1 million vehicles.

That implies roughly 15–16% of the total European car market.

If other Chinese manufacturers add another 1 million vehicles, Chinese OEMs together would reach roughly 3.1 million vehicles in Europe, or around 23% of the total market.

This is the scale of the discussion.

It is no longer about a few imported electric cars at the edge of the market. It is a scenario in which Chinese OEMs become a structural part of European automotive.

Technologically, this is possible. From a battery-cost perspective, very likely. From a local-production perspective, also yes. Brownfield plants, localized supply chains and European battery production could make this more realistic than many assume.

But there is one big limiting factor.

Europe is not just a product market. It is an ownership system.

A strong price and a good electric car can win attention. But Europe is also about leasing, fleets, residual values, repair networks, parts availability, insurance, dealer behaviour and second-hand buyers.

That is where the scenario becomes harder.

Residual values decide leasing rates. Leasing rates decide fleet penetration. Fleet penetration decides scale.

Aftersales matters just as much. Fleet managers buy uptime, repairability, parts availability and predictable cost of ownership.

This is where Chinese OEMs still have serious work to do.

And this is where European OEMs still have breathing space.

They understand the European customer. They know fleet and leasing. They have dealer and service networks. They understand used cars and residual-value management.

But these advantages only matter if Europe uses the time well: not to deny the Chinese challenge, not to wait for tariffs, and not to hope that Europe is too complicated for Chinese brands.

The task is to use the ownership-system advantage while fixing cost, speed, software and electric platforms.

Because if one or two Chinese OEMs solve the European ownership system, the scenario above stops looking theoretical very quickly.

Then the question is no longer whether Chinese OEMs can build cars for Europe.

The question is how much of the market Europe’s incumbents are still able to defend.